Gaza Ceasefire Violations and Implications for Phase Two

February 19, 2026

Key Points

Strategic Context

The launch of Phase Two followed two major developments: the return of all hostages to Israel and the reopening of the Rafah Border Crossing. This phase is intended to shift Gaza from active conflict toward demilitarization, including the removal of Hamas weapons, munitions, and tunnels, and to establish structured civilian administration.

However, Hamas has rejected full disarmament and is now asserting that such requirements were not part of the ceasefire framework, creating a major disconnect between the peace plan’s objectives and Hamas’s actions on the ground. Hamas’s posture carries implications beyond Israeli security. The continuation of militant infrastructure, weapons movement, and ceasefire violations is hindering reconstruction, delaying governance reforms, and impeding efforts to improve living conditions for Palestinians.

Patterns of Hamas Noncompliance

Reporting since the ceasefire agreement was reached last October points to several recurring patterns of Hamas noncompliance, including:

Armed Activity Near Israeli Forces
Multiple incidents involved armed operatives knowingly approaching or crossing the Yellow Line (which splits Gaza between areas controlled by Israel and Hamas) near Israeli forces in northerncentral, and southern Gaza.

Continued Use of Tunnel Infrastructure
Reports of terrorists emerging from tunnels, along with the detention of a senior Hamas East Rafah Battalion commander attempting to flee via Gaza’s underground routes, indicate Hamas’s military mobility and infrastructure remain intact.

Weaponization of Civilian and Humanitarian Infrastructure
Drone footage released by the IDF showed Hamas operatives using ambulances to transport fighters and weapons from a hospital to a school in the Jabaliya area of northern Gaza, which complicates humanitarian operations and increases risks to civilians receiving treatment at the hospital.

Escalatory Dynamics
Recent attacks near the Yellow Line, including the shooting that seriously wounded an IDF reservist officer, underscore how sustained low-level violations can destabilize the ceasefire and trigger retaliatory military responses.

Why This Matters for Democrats

Implications for Phase Two

Phase Two was conceived as the bridge between active conflict and sustainable recovery; a period in which violence would recede, governance structures would begin to normalize, and reconstruction could accelerate. Instead, Hamas’s refusal to disarm is creating a cycle of instability that places these objectives increasingly out of reach.

Continued armed provocations and the preservation of militant infrastructure sustain Israeli threat perceptions, making it politically and militarily difficult for Israel to accept deeper concessions or security risks. Each violation, even if limited in scale, reinforces doubts about the ceasefire’s durability and increases the likelihood of retaliatory actions. This dynamic also shifts attention and resources away from civilian recovery and back toward security management.

At the same time, the absence of demilitarization deters international actors from fully committing to long-term reconstruction and governance initiatives. While President Trump has collected $7 billion in pledges from the Board of Peace, reconstruction is expected to cost $70 billion and donors will be reluctant to invest in projects vulnerable to destruction or diversion by Hamas. At the same time, the NCAG cannot meaningfully exert authority while Hamas retains coercive authority and military leverage.

The result is a stalled transition: Gaza remains suspended between war and recovery, with Palestinians bearing the consequences of delayed rebuilding, weakened institutions, and persistent insecurity. Without measurable progress toward demilitarization, Phase Two risks evolving from a pathway to stabilization into a holding pattern defined by recurring violations and fragile deterrence. Absent progress on demilitarization, both Israeli security objectives and Palestinian stabilization efforts remain out of reach.