January 16, 2026
As President Trump considers potential military options against Iran, reporting that Tehran is reconstituting its ballistic missile production capabilities has heightened the risk of near-term escalation. Any Iranian retaliation to a kinetic attack is likely to include ballistic missile strikes against Israel, as seen during the three Iranian salvos targeting Israel since 2024.
Ballistic missiles pose a uniquely dangerous threat to Israel due to their speed, range, and trajectory, which sharply compress warning and decision timelines and limit interception opportunities. They are also the primary delivery system for nuclear weapons, raising the stakes of every launch.
The ballistic missile threat is more than a regional security concern. Israel is one of America’s closest allies and one of our most important security and intelligence partners in the Middle East. Iranian missiles can reach Israel in roughly 12 minutes, leaving minimal time for warning, decision-making, and interception. When Israel is under threat, U.S. interests, U.S. personnel, and regional stability are directly at risk as well. Ensuring Israel’s defensive capabilities is therefore critical for Democrats who care about protecting Americans, preventing escalation that threatens regional stability, safeguarding critical infrastructure, and maintaining credible deterrence.
Why It Matters to Democrats
The Trump administration’s recent foreign policy adventurism compounds regional security risks. In particular, repositioning major U.S. military assets from the Middle East to the Western Hemisphere has left our ally vulnerable and reduced available defensive capacity at a moment of heightened tension. That shift leaves Israel more exposed to potential retaliation, places greater strain on already finite interceptor stockpiles, and increases the likelihood of miscalculation in a crisis. These were deliberate policy choices, and they carry real, strategic consequences. U.S. influence and deterrence depend on maintaining a credible presence in the region.
American lives are at risk: Hundreds of thousands of American citizens live in the Middle East, alongside tens of thousands of U.S. service members, diplomats, and contractors stationed throughout the region. A large-scale missile exchange involving Israel would almost certainly spill across borders, complicate evacuations, strain U.S. military posture, and put Americans in harm’s way.
Energy markets and critical infrastructure are vulnerable: Regional military confrontation risks disrupting ports, energy facilities, shipping lanes, and regional infrastructure that affect global oil supply and energy prices. Even short disruptions can ripple quickly into higher costs for American families and businesses.
Israel faces a uniquely compressed and unforgiving threat environment: Unlike rockets, drones, or cruise missiles, ballistic missiles travel at extreme speeds, often exceeding 13,000 miles per hour, with the capability to reach Israel in roughly 12 minutes. Israel’s layered missile defense systems save lives and reduce pressure for rapid escalation, but they are not impenetrable, especially against large or coordinated attacks like we have seen from Iran in the past 18 months. In addition, interceptor stockpiles are finite and replenishment takes time.
Iran has already demonstrated its willingness to directly attack Israel with ballistic missiles at scale over the past two years. These were not symbolic gestures. They were operational tests of Israel’s defenses and regional response systems. A more vulnerable Israel weakens regional deterrence and directly affects U.S. security, intelligence cooperation, and crisis response capacity.
Preventing nuclear escalation remains a core Democratic priority: Iran’s continued advancement of ballistic missile and nuclear technologies preserves its ability to move quickly toward weaponization if it chooses. Preventing that outcome remains a bipartisan and Democratic national security imperative.
Conclusion
Democrats should assert influence against the administration’s military force posture that has reduced defensive capacity in the region at precisely the wrong moment. Repositioning assets away from the Middle East to less strategic priorities has reduced U.S. deterrence in the region and may strain Israel’s defensive capabilities. That imbalance raises the risk of escalation and miscalculation and demands corrective action. Neither Israel nor the region should be left exposed because of avoidable gaps in preparedness.
Democrats should lead with strength and responsibility: protect American lives, defend a critical democratic ally, and ensure that U.S. policy reduces the risk of escalation rather than inadvertently increasing it. Iran must understand that aggression will be met with credible and sustained deterrence.