February 23, 2026
Strategic Context
The U.S.-Israel alliance is operating in one of its most complex strategic environments in years, shaped by the threat of renewed conflict with Iran, a fragile ceasefire in Gaza, and mounting pressure on the broader regional order. Against this backdrop, the U.S. partnership with Israel remains central to advancing both countries’ security interests, underpinned by deep defense, intelligence, and technological cooperation.
Security, Deterrence, and Defense Cooperation
Security cooperation remains the cornerstone of the U.S.-Israel alliance. Decades of joint defense initiatives, intelligence sharing, and technological collaboration have produced a partnership that advances both countries’ security and strategic interests. U.S. security assistance and the commitment to preserving Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge (QME) are critical to ensuring Israel can defend itself in a hostile region, while reinforcing regional deterrence and supporting jointly developed capabilities in missile defense and emerging technologies. Security assistance also shows tangible U.S. support to our primary ally in the region while preventing other major powers, like China and Russia, from gaining influence.
Iran and Regional Stability
Iran’s nuclear program and regional activities remain central to U.S. strategic security calculations. Longstanding concerns about Iranian nuclear proliferation, ballistic missile development, and terrorist proxy support continue to shape both diplomatic and military posture decisions. U.S. negotiators are currently pursuing three core objectives: limiting Iranian uranium enrichment, ballistic missile development, and support for regional proxies.
Iran is unlikely to concede on missiles or proxies. However, its nuclear enrichment capacity was significantly degraded in the 12-day war last June, creating a potential opening for concessions that may be largely symbolic. In parallel, the U.S. has deployed a second aircraft carrier strike group and additional fighter jets to the region, and strikes targeting Iran appear increasingly likely in the near term if a diplomatic solution cannot be reached.
Gaza: Security and Humanitarian Conditions
Large-scale hostilities have decreased under the current ceasefire framework, but Gaza remains fragile and politically unstable. Core challenges include—first and foremost—the disarmament of Hamas, which must occur before establishing new governance and beginning the process of reconstruction. Since the ceasefire took effect last October, Hamas has conducted repeated armed incursions, tunnel operations, and direct attacks on IDF forces, while publicly rejecting disarmament and consolidating control over roughly half of Gaza’s territory. Humanitarian conditions are still in need of major improvement, especially regarding aid delivery mechanisms and safeguards against diversion.
A National Committee for the Administration of Gaza has been announced but has not yet entered the Strip. An international Board of Peace, formally established and chaired by President Trump, is intended to oversee reconstruction; roughly 60 countries have been invited to join. (See our recent memo on implementation of the Gaza ceasefire.)
Israeli–Palestinian Dynamics
Conditions in the West Bank continue to raise concerns about stability and escalation. Israeli security operations, settlement expansion, and Palestinian governance challenges sustain a complex and volatile environment. Political constraints on both sides—including opposition to a two-state solution among most Israelis and Palestinians following Hamas’s attack on October 7 and the ensuing war—limit near-term diplomatic progress, reinforcing a policy landscape defined more by conflict management than resolution. The Palestinian Authority’s (PA) draft constitution submitted earlier this month is highly problematic for reaching any diplomatic solution with Israel. For example, it omits any Jewish ties to Jerusalem and codifies the PA’s “pay to slay” program, signaling that Israel currently lacks a negotiating partner on the Palestinian side.
Regional Integration Efforts
Normalization initiatives under the Abraham Accords remain an important element of U.S. regional strategy, offering diplomatic and economic opportunities for Israel and its partners. But expansion faces structural limits tied to Israeli–Palestinian tensions, regional threat perceptions, and domestic politics within potential partner states. Saudi Arabia remains the most consequential prospective entrant, though normalization appears delayed for the foreseeable future and will hinge on broader political and security conditions.
Counterterrorism and Regional Threats
The regional security environment is shaped by evolving non-state threats. ISIS and affiliated groups persist across several theaters, while Iran-backed actors and instability in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen present ongoing challenges affecting the region. These dynamics reinforce the continued relevance of U.S. counterterrorism operations, intelligence partnerships, and deterrence strategies.
Conclusion
U.S. policy toward Israel sits at the intersection of security cooperation, regional deterrence, humanitarian obligations, and complex political realities. Sustaining the alliance while managing escalation risks, especially with Iran, and supporting durable stability in Gaza will require careful calibration in the months ahead.